Data study · Treasury yields
The US Treasury Yield Curve, 2010–2026
The interest rate the US government pays to borrow — from 3-month bills to 30-year bonds — month by month for the last 16 years. It's the benchmark that sets mortgage rates and the cost of money everywhere else, and the shape of the curve is one of the market's most-watched recession signals. Here's today's curve, the long history of the 10-year yield, and the great inversion of 2022–2024 in full.
- 10-year today 4.38% June 2026 · 2-yr 4.1%
- 10y−2y spread +0.28 normal (upward)
- Deepest inversion -1.06 June 2023
- 10-year peak 4.88% October 2023
How to read the curve
The chart above is a photograph of the bond market on a single day: each point is the annual interest rate the US Treasury pays to borrow for that length of time, from short bills on the left to the 30-year bond on the right. In normal times the line slopes upward — lenders want more yield to tie their money up for longer, and to compensate for the risk that inflation eats into a distant repayment. The steepness of that slope, and whether it slopes up at all, is what analysts read for clues about where the economy is headed. Today the curve slopes upward again, with the 10-year at 4.38% and the 2-year at 4.1%.
The recession signal: the 10y−2y spread
The single most-watched number on the curve is the gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields — the 10y−2y spread. When it's positive, the curve is normal. When it turns negative — short-term yields above long-term ones — the curve is "inverted," and that has preceded every US recession of the past half-century. An inversion is the market's way of saying it expects the Fed to be cutting rates before long, which usually means it expects the economy to weaken. Over this whole record the spread ranged from a steep +2.84 in January 2011 to a deeply inverted -1.06 in June 2023, and the curve spent 25 months inverted in total.
The great inversion of 2022–2024
The deepest, longest inversion in four decades ran through this record. As the Fed raised its policy rate at the fastest pace in decades to fight 40-year-high inflation, short-term yields shot up while long-term yields — anchored by expectations that rate hikes would eventually slow the economy — rose far less. The 2-year climbed above the 10-year in mid-2022 and stayed there, reaching a remarkable -1.06 points inverted in June 2023. What made this episode unusual is that the widely-watched signal flashed red for so long without an immediate recession — a reminder that the curve is a warning light, not a stopwatch. By 2026 the spread had climbed back to +0.28, and the curve returned to its normal upward slope.
The 10-year yield, the number that moves your mortgage
If you only follow one point on the curve, make it the 10-year. It's the benchmark the 30-year fixed mortgage is priced off — when the 10-year rises, mortgage rates follow within weeks. Over this record the 10-year swung from a COVID-era low of 0.55% in July 2020, when investors piled into the safety of government bonds, to a high of 4.88% in October 2023, its loftiest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. Today it sits at 4.38%. To see that connection play out on the borrowing side, read our companion study on historical mortgage rates.
The yield curve in a specific year
Want a single year in detail — its curve, the 10y−2y spread, whether it inverted, and the story behind it? Pick a year:
US Treasury yield curve — FAQ
What is the Treasury yield curve?
The yield curve plots the interest rate the US government pays to borrow across different lengths of time — from 1-month bills out to 30-year bonds — all on one line. Normally it slopes upward: lenders demand more to tie up money for longer. Today the 10-year yields 4.38% and the 2-year 4.1%, a gap of +0.28 points. The curve's shape is one of the most-watched signals in finance because it reflects what markets expect for growth, inflation and Fed policy.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
The curve is "inverted" when short-term yields sit above long-term ones — most commonly measured as the 2-year yield above the 10-year, so the 10y−2y spread turns negative. It means investors expect the Fed to cut rates in the future, usually because they see the economy slowing. An inversion has preceded every US recession of the past half-century, which is why it draws so much attention. In this record the curve was inverted for 25 months, reaching its deepest point of -1.06 in June 2023.
Is the yield curve inverted right now?
As of June 2026, the 10y−2y spread is +0.28 points — positive, so the curve has returned to its normal upward slope after the long 2022–2024 inversion. The 10-year yields 4.38% and the 2-year 4.1%.
What was the highest 10-year Treasury yield?
In this 2010–2026 record the 10-year yield peaked at 4.88% in October 2023, as the Fed pushed its policy rate to a 22-year high to fight inflation. Its low was 0.55% in July 2020, during the COVID-19 flight to safety.
Why do Treasury yields matter for me?
Treasury yields are the benchmark the rest of the credit market is priced off. The 10-year in particular heavily influences 30-year fixed mortgage rates, and Treasury yields feed into car loans, corporate borrowing, and the return on savings and money-market funds. When yields rise, borrowing gets more expensive across the board; when they fall, it gets cheaper. Watching the curve is a way to see where the cost of money is heading.
Where does this yield data come from?
All figures come from US Treasury daily par yield curve rates — via APIVerve. Each point is the par yield on the last business day of the month. The 10y−2y spread is computed from those two series. The record runs monthly from 2010-01 to 2026-06.
Source & method
Data: US Treasury daily par yield curve rates — via APIVerve. Each point is the par yield on the last business day of the month; the 10y−2y spread is computed from the 2-year and 10-year series. Today's curve and the inflation-protected (TIPS) real yields are the latest available reading. The record runs monthly from 2010-01 to 2026-06. Snapshot generated July 2026. Free to cite or embed with a link back to this page.
