Treasury yield curve · 2019
The Yield Curve in 2019
In 2019, the US 10-year Treasury yield averaged 2.08% and the 2-year 1.91% — a 10y−2y spread of +0.17, and the curve kept its normal upward slope. Here's the whole curve tenor by tenor, what its shape signaled, and how it compares with the 4.38% 10-year today.
- 2019 · 10-year 2.08% 2-year 1.91%
- 10y−2y spread +0.17 not inverted
- vs today 4.38% 10-year, 2026
- Deepest that year +0.00 min 10y−2y
The whole curve in 2019
A single year's curve is best read maturity by maturity, and the interactive chart above lets you hover any point on it. In broad strokes, 2019 opened at the short end with three-month bills near 2.07% and the two-year note around 1.91%, rose through the belly of the curve to the 2.08% ten-year benchmark, and reached out to roughly 2.53% on the thirty-year long bond. That is a span of about +0.46 points from the shortest bills to the longest bond — a flattish but still positive slope, the premium for lending long largely eroded.
The short end versus the long end
The two halves of the curve are driven by different forces. The short end — the 3-month bill at 2.07% and the 2-year note at 1.91% in 2019 — moves with the Federal Reserve's policy rate and with expectations for where it's headed. The long end — the 10-year at 2.08% and the 30-year at 2.53% — is set more by the market's view of long-run growth and inflation. When the Fed is hiking aggressively, the short end can climb above the long end, and the curve inverts. In 2019 the 10-year sat +0.01 relative to the 3-month bill.
What the 2019 curve signaled
The 2-year/10-year yield curve briefly inverted for the first time since before the financial crisis — a classic recession warning — and the Fed responded by cutting rates three times.
Across 2019 the 10-year Treasury averaged 2.08% and the 2-year 1.91%, leaving the 10y−2y spread at +0.17. That kept the curve in its normal, upward-sloping shape, with investors paid more to lend for longer — generally a sign the market isn't pricing in an imminent downturn.
The 10-year's path through 2019
The benchmark 10-year didn't sit still during the year. It fell, moving from about 2.63% at the start of 2019 to 1.92% by year-end, and traded between roughly 1.5% and 2.73% along the way. For anyone shopping for a mortgage that year, those swings mattered: the 30-year fixed is priced off the 10-year, so its rise and fall showed up in home-loan quotes within weeks. See exactly what mortgage rates did in 2019.
How 2019 compares with today — and its own decade
The 10-year sits at about 4.38% today, so 2019's 2.08% was below the current level — the 13th-highest of the 17 years in this record. The spread has since moved to +0.28, so the curve is back to its normal upward slope. Within the 2010s, the 10-year averaged about 2.38%, and 2019 ran below its own decade. A year earlier, in 2018, the 10-year averaged 2.89% with a +0.36 spread. The following year, 2020, it eased to 0.83%.
The curve doesn't move on its own — it's driven by the Fed at the short end and by growth and inflation expectations at the long end. See what the Fed's policy rate did in 2019, and how mortgage rates moved in 2019 as a result.
This is one year of the story. For the whole picture — every month since 2010, the great 2022–2024 inversion, today's curve and what it all signals — see the US Treasury yield curve, 2010–today.
The yield curve in 2019 — FAQ
What was the 10-year Treasury yield in 2019?
In 2019, the US 10-year Treasury yield averaged 2.08%, ranging from about 1.5% to 2.73% over the year, and the 2-year averaged 1.91%. The 10-year was down from 2.89% the year before.
Was the yield curve inverted in 2019?
No. In 2019 the 10y−2y spread averaged +0.17, so the curve kept its normal upward-sloping shape, with long-term yields at or above short-term ones.
How steep was the 2019 yield curve?
Measured from the 3-month bill (2.07%) to the 30-year bond (2.53%), the 2019 curve spanned +0.46 points. The 10-year sat +0.01 above the 3-month. A wider positive gap means a steeper, more "normal" curve; a negative one means inversion.
How did 2019 compare with today?
In 2019 the 10-year averaged 2.08%, versus 4.38% today — below the current level, and the 13th-highest of the 17 years on record. The 10y−2y spread was +0.17 then, against +0.28 now.
What happened to Treasury yields in 2019?
The 2-year/10-year yield curve briefly inverted for the first time since before the financial crisis — a classic recession warning — and the Fed responded by cutting rates three times.
